Independent Exposé : Labour Blogger Apologises!
Today's Independent leads with a cover featuring four swingometers and their view that voting Lib Dem is unlikely to let Michael Howard into government.
For some reason they use swings of 3%, 6% and 9% rather than the something over 11% where Labour loses overall control.
It would be at that point where the Lib Dems could start dabbling with both of the other parties. With Tories as in Leeds and other Councils. With the Labour right as in Scotland. In both cases the Labour left would probably be out of the loop.
At every single step in the process there appear to be MORE Tory than Lib Dem gains as a result of the swing.
However it does seem that some of the figures given out by Labour HQ have overstated the effect - if that is these were on the same basis as The Independent.
As I have repeated these claims in this blog I must apologise without reservation.
I will say this. The study is based on the same turnout, and no change whatsoever or a 3% uplift in the Tory vote. If the turn out is well down as many expect and if there is a greater Tory improvement vs Labour, and versus Lib Dems in their key marginals too ... Well then the predicted global effect of 80 seats changing and only 5 or so going to the Libs, and even a Tory government, well I think that may still be possible.
I'm off to find a two way swingometer that works to have a play with the numbers.
For some reason they use swings of 3%, 6% and 9% rather than the something over 11% where Labour loses overall control.
It would be at that point where the Lib Dems could start dabbling with both of the other parties. With Tories as in Leeds and other Councils. With the Labour right as in Scotland. In both cases the Labour left would probably be out of the loop.
At every single step in the process there appear to be MORE Tory than Lib Dem gains as a result of the swing.
However it does seem that some of the figures given out by Labour HQ have overstated the effect - if that is these were on the same basis as The Independent.
As I have repeated these claims in this blog I must apologise without reservation.
I will say this. The study is based on the same turnout, and no change whatsoever or a 3% uplift in the Tory vote. If the turn out is well down as many expect and if there is a greater Tory improvement vs Labour, and versus Lib Dems in their key marginals too ... Well then the predicted global effect of 80 seats changing and only 5 or so going to the Libs, and even a Tory government, well I think that may still be possible.
I'm off to find a two way swingometer that works to have a play with the numbers.
posted by Chris Paul at 12:27 AM
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