Today is Election Day
Well, today actually is election day, May 5. This blog entry has been sitting here for days but I'm tweaking it a bit.
BEGIN WITH THE END IN SIGHT
===========================
When you are voting, and in the spirit of So Now Who Do We Vote For? project you will want to make sure :
*A Labour does not lose seats to Tories through your actions
*B Labour has a working majority, not too big, not too small
*C You signal loud and clear in seats where Tories are definitely no threat
And :
*D Labour are nudged left and take notice
You may also want to :
*E Ensure Labour left MPs and Labour anti-war MPs are not dumped by YOU
POINT A
=======
On point A you will be aware that there has been a controversy over the Labour line i.e. that a swing of just over 10% from Labour to any third party will hand between 70 and 80 seats to the Tories WITHOUT THEM IMPROVING THEIR OWN VOTE ONE IOTA.
If the swing is to Lib Dems they will pick up five or six seats. If it is to smaller parties the Tories will gain 80 seats.
Labour HQ are saying this prediction is based on private polls and is accurate. But even on the public polls and The Independent analysis find that about 38 seats go to the Tories with such a swing. And they only have to nick a few back from the Lib Dems and win a few local fights with Labour to make a serious advance.
Perhaps take away Labour's overall majority.
This is incredibly difficult to calibrate for voters. So what are you going to do? Let a Tory in in your area? Risk more Tory power in government? Perhaps a fairly right wing Lib-Con regime as we have in Leeds Town Hall?
Still on point A you will be aware that 10% of habitual Labour voters in these seats going "on strike" and not voting at all could also hand up to 80 seats to the Tories, half without them gaining, half needing active swings to the Blues.
AIn other words if the Tories happen to gain some votes here and there then a smaller swing to a third party or less strikers would let them in through the muddle.
POINT B
=======
On point B there is a school of thought which says a small working majority is good enough and will mean the Labour left, albeit numerically diminished, will have the balance of power in parliament. Nice thought for many readers.
However there are several flies in that particular ointment.
First,it is hard to calibrate and a dashed close run thing may go the wrong way. Waking up on May 6 to find Howard has the decision on committing troops to Iran or Syria instead of a chastened Blair is not progress.
[Blair's party are the only ones to have responded to my request for a sign for Labour blog readers. See Do Not Attack Iran : Response.]
Second, the left will be seriously diminished and in a smaller parliamentary party a higher percentage will be taking the Blair shilling as Ministers and bagcarriers.
Third, Blair may look elsewhere in the centre left-right and team up with elements of the Lib Dems or worse to get his neo-liberal reforms through.
The school of thought which says a larger majority means more shift to the left is gathering force even among those in the party who have most reason to oppose Blair.
POINT C
=======
Following George Monbiot's advice on signalling effectively is reasonably sound. But I think students of SNWDWVF should boost left Labour and anti-war Labour up his list and should be mindful of Point A above. Don't let the Tories slip through the muddle.
POINT D
=======
This is covered in Point B really. I subscribe to the idea that a more comfortable majority makes it easier for Blair to leave earlier. Makes it easier for the successor. Makes a fourth term - hopefully a socialist revival - more likely. Keeps the Labour left, and the Trade Unions, and affiliated socialist societies, and the ordinary members and supporters more not less important.
Yes, of course a Tory win brings forward the chance of a socialist revolution! But in real terms it is just more misery for the poorest and weakest in our society.
POINT E
=======
I posted a link to lists of the most endangered of the left and anti-war Labour species within 48 hours of the PVs going out. See links and quizzes, under Labour Left Briefing. Please don't dump a socialist MP or even a moderate anti-war MP because you want to attack Blair.
There is no point replacing most of these people (our people) with any candidate from any other party. They are unlikely to be to be any improvement. And quite likely to be worse. Online quizzes that put Lib Dems ahead on your issues neglect the fact of absences and abstentions and some other marquee issues for the left. Not least progress on minimum wage and constitutional reform. Lib Dems voted against progress.
HAPPY VOTING
============
Of course I realise that many people will be voting Labour between now and 5 May with a heavy heart, with their fingers over their nose, under protest.
But please do look at the Bar Chart (Read this Bar Chart ...), please consider the minimum wage, Lords reform, boost for schools, boost for pensioners, boost for police, boost for patients and health workers, and even the boost from the G8 led by Brown and Blair on environment and world poverty.
There are still many positive reasons to vote Labour. Not least the vastly improved lives of some of the poorest people in our land. For example in Moss Side, Ardwick, and Ancoats. Don't let them down.
BEGIN WITH THE END IN SIGHT
===========================
When you are voting, and in the spirit of So Now Who Do We Vote For? project you will want to make sure :
*A Labour does not lose seats to Tories through your actions
*B Labour has a working majority, not too big, not too small
*C You signal loud and clear in seats where Tories are definitely no threat
And :
*D Labour are nudged left and take notice
You may also want to :
*E Ensure Labour left MPs and Labour anti-war MPs are not dumped by YOU
POINT A
=======
On point A you will be aware that there has been a controversy over the Labour line i.e. that a swing of just over 10% from Labour to any third party will hand between 70 and 80 seats to the Tories WITHOUT THEM IMPROVING THEIR OWN VOTE ONE IOTA.
If the swing is to Lib Dems they will pick up five or six seats. If it is to smaller parties the Tories will gain 80 seats.
Labour HQ are saying this prediction is based on private polls and is accurate. But even on the public polls and The Independent analysis find that about 38 seats go to the Tories with such a swing. And they only have to nick a few back from the Lib Dems and win a few local fights with Labour to make a serious advance.
Perhaps take away Labour's overall majority.
This is incredibly difficult to calibrate for voters. So what are you going to do? Let a Tory in in your area? Risk more Tory power in government? Perhaps a fairly right wing Lib-Con regime as we have in Leeds Town Hall?
Still on point A you will be aware that 10% of habitual Labour voters in these seats going "on strike" and not voting at all could also hand up to 80 seats to the Tories, half without them gaining, half needing active swings to the Blues.
AIn other words if the Tories happen to gain some votes here and there then a smaller swing to a third party or less strikers would let them in through the muddle.
POINT B
=======
On point B there is a school of thought which says a small working majority is good enough and will mean the Labour left, albeit numerically diminished, will have the balance of power in parliament. Nice thought for many readers.
However there are several flies in that particular ointment.
First,it is hard to calibrate and a dashed close run thing may go the wrong way. Waking up on May 6 to find Howard has the decision on committing troops to Iran or Syria instead of a chastened Blair is not progress.
[Blair's party are the only ones to have responded to my request for a sign for Labour blog readers. See Do Not Attack Iran : Response.]
Second, the left will be seriously diminished and in a smaller parliamentary party a higher percentage will be taking the Blair shilling as Ministers and bagcarriers.
Third, Blair may look elsewhere in the centre left-right and team up with elements of the Lib Dems or worse to get his neo-liberal reforms through.
The school of thought which says a larger majority means more shift to the left is gathering force even among those in the party who have most reason to oppose Blair.
POINT C
=======
Following George Monbiot's advice on signalling effectively is reasonably sound. But I think students of SNWDWVF should boost left Labour and anti-war Labour up his list and should be mindful of Point A above. Don't let the Tories slip through the muddle.
POINT D
=======
This is covered in Point B really. I subscribe to the idea that a more comfortable majority makes it easier for Blair to leave earlier. Makes it easier for the successor. Makes a fourth term - hopefully a socialist revival - more likely. Keeps the Labour left, and the Trade Unions, and affiliated socialist societies, and the ordinary members and supporters more not less important.
Yes, of course a Tory win brings forward the chance of a socialist revolution! But in real terms it is just more misery for the poorest and weakest in our society.
POINT E
=======
I posted a link to lists of the most endangered of the left and anti-war Labour species within 48 hours of the PVs going out. See links and quizzes, under Labour Left Briefing. Please don't dump a socialist MP or even a moderate anti-war MP because you want to attack Blair.
There is no point replacing most of these people (our people) with any candidate from any other party. They are unlikely to be to be any improvement. And quite likely to be worse. Online quizzes that put Lib Dems ahead on your issues neglect the fact of absences and abstentions and some other marquee issues for the left. Not least progress on minimum wage and constitutional reform. Lib Dems voted against progress.
HAPPY VOTING
============
Of course I realise that many people will be voting Labour between now and 5 May with a heavy heart, with their fingers over their nose, under protest.
But please do look at the Bar Chart (Read this Bar Chart ...), please consider the minimum wage, Lords reform, boost for schools, boost for pensioners, boost for police, boost for patients and health workers, and even the boost from the G8 led by Brown and Blair on environment and world poverty.
There are still many positive reasons to vote Labour. Not least the vastly improved lives of some of the poorest people in our land. For example in Moss Side, Ardwick, and Ancoats. Don't let them down.
posted by Chris Paul at 9:02 PM
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