CP's Labour Blog

Lorna's Doomed and other Loose Ends

In fact Lorna Fitzsimons lost, albeit by a smaller swing that expected. And Keith Bradley lost too in Manchester Withington. A real shocker! And that's just the new MP John Leech.

Lorna's Saved

Amazing. The illicit texting is saying that Lorna Fitzsimons has actually held her seat in Rochdale with a doubled majority of c 3,000. Her constituency is where Blair became a Stottite. And we had no idea how it would go. Because there wasn't enough information.

Lorna is certainly flamboyant in the way Rochdale expects post-Cyril Smith. But on all the key issues she's Blairite. Not just loyal and disciplined with a heavy heart. Actually gung ho Blairite.

I tell various people this news. They are delighted. I'm just amazed really. Even with backing from Stott ("Councillor Tom") and other local Labour people it seems a miracle if Lorna's pulled off an escape from a majority under 2,000.

Gordon is a Moron

Not a comment on Gordon's past, present and future. Actually the eponymous Gordon who starred in the Jilted John drama is here in the count. Working for the Greens. Agent for them in Withington. Absolutely fed up with them. "Middle class tossers, always arguing" he may have said. He "should join a proper party" I may have said "But you will not get away from the MCTs, AA".

Meanwhile our mutal friend Tosh - who managed Graham Fellows of Jilted John fame - is recovering after a triple by-pass. No MRSA. And no waiting list really. Five days from need-identified to op. Which chimes with my NHS experience. Pretty good really. Particularly for a low tax economy.

Talking to Lib Dems

Cllr Peter is by far and away my favourite Lib Dem councillor. He has the same low opinion of some of his party colleagues as I do. And he wants to maintain public respect for political activists by banishing negative attack politics.

He is probably in the wrong party to get his wishes on that one. And it must be said that as incumbents they all seem to get sniffy about being called to account in any way. Though they have generally got to office themselves with the most shameless anti- politics - fibs, exaggeration, taking credit they're not due, incessant whining, and that old fall back scaremongering.

His people have been busy in Withington constituency. They have been sent there from on high. When we first talk I think this will be a hold by 5,000 plus, way down from 11,000 plus. But I say 8,000 which is the figure the Labour agent and all the predictive websites have been saying.

Cllr Peter says he would be disappointed at that.

Later it becomes obvious that Withington will be very close indeed.

But whatever. We're still talking. Why was the Local Income Tax not on their leaflets in Manchester? Basically because the sums don't add up in my view. We're all agreed that Rates, and Poll Tax, and Council Tax are all faulty and regressive. But this LIT is ... not good either.

Agent Jim asks Cllr Peter whether he is first or second up. He is first. As Jim well knows. Cllr Dobbo sneaked by him in the last batch of votes in 2004.

Even Marc their leader in the City Centre ward I fought last time is involved in the conversation now. He asks what were the margins and I say cheerfully that he was way ahead. But that us riff raff were all pretty close.

In fact a 50-vote swing would have won us two seats. And that sort of margin with 1500 voters has to be down to Blair and his damned war.

Poor Fash : Damaged Goods

Standing next to fascists is sometimes a cue for jostling and unpleasantness.

Perhaps even Jean Marie Le Pen and Nick Griffin's car getting rocked and unfortunately damaged when they came into our area. I know they were scared as I could see their eyes through the smoked glass.

But in this context as 5% of those in a room with 95% dedicated to democratic processes they can surely relax and enjoy the fruits of their brilliant campaign literature. Winning the master race.

But they're not relaxed and they are unsettled. Their candidate hovers over one of the Newton Heath and Miles Platting tables.

"I thought it would be better than this", he says to his accomplice, "This is Newton Heath and I've not seen a single vote for us". He is desperately unhappy in the here and now. And this is probably the way he is all the time.

Anti- reality means unhappy I guess for these fascists. You only have to look at Nick Griffin for a few seconds to realise that this is damaged goods.

I've been watching properly and I have seen a few votes for him. But in the Newton Heath boxes it is running very low. Probably the BNP folk are voting for us or the Tories this time. Depending whether they are proper national socialists (ours?) or just horrible soft racists (theirs?). They aren't going to be so scummy as to vote for the fascists with £50 suits.

They probably got more votes in unexpected places. Where there has been no concerted anti-fascist work. Students and wild individuals spread around the constituency.

But I don't tell the fascist candidate I've seen a couple of votes for him. Just move aside gently as he politely says "excuse me" in his muddle class way. Just hope my Manchester Against Racism pin badge and his lack of electoral support is burning a hole in his sad fascist ideals.

He will lose his deposit. And he's also spent hundreds on unreconstructed fascist fliers to ever household in the constituency.

Around Midnight One

By the witching hour we Labour tellers are performing our duties beautifully. The other parties are random this time. We are efficient and effective. The one Lib Dem who knows the score is pulled off this count about now as the sudden marginal of Manchester Withington needs her skills.

We do samples of the vote in our various key council seats. Newton Heath - because of the fascists. Hulme - because we have a solitary Green seated there. Whalley Range - because that's home turf for half the team. City Centre - because that too is a marginal three-Lib Dem target.

Once crazy Anne has gone we are the only ones applying ourselves to sampling the vote. And on a very hard night for Labour nationally we are very happy with what we see.

Though the students have not checked Tony's record - Anti-War, Anti-Foundations, Anti-Fees etc etc - and in a small number of polling stations they have voted against willy nilly.

But there are dozens of boxes. And a couple of tough ones are no problem when we can bob over to one of the other tables and watch an Ancoats or a Moss Side voting 7-3 or 10-nil respectively for our man Lloyd.

SNWDWVF : Press Accreditation

On Wednesday I had gone into the Press Office to apply for accreditation. Chris from there rang me during the day to confirm a pass would be ready to collect.

SNWDWVF (Labour Blog) are now recognised as a bonafide press organisation.

Towards midnight I went to the Press Room and was ushered round the Town Hall until we found my man. What I really wanted was web access so I could blog from the count. But that wasn't going to happen it seemed.

But there was some excitement as ITN and BBC stringers were competing for the hottest coverage. And by now it seemed certain that one of the five "safe" Labour seats was actually going to go to the wire.

The press room had sandwiches, hot and cold drinks, later beer included, but I decided to rise above this and just report the events soberly, as I saw them. Without taking blandishments from any Town Hall.

Dungay's Wager

But they are not the only strange fish here. The Reverend Peter Dungay is here too. He was a Labour councillor here for some years. Until Turkey Gate. But he has recently popped up again as a Green Party organiser. And in various religious orders.

At the time of the Europeans and All Outs in 2004 he was His Supreme Holiness - a high calibre Buddhist Monk. Topknot, orange robe and all. Now he has defected as he did from Labour. To something called the Church of Universal Ministries. I quiz him about it and will track it down on the web - assuming it has a footprint on the digital superhighway.

He wears a dog collar and traditional priest garb. But his most fetching accoutrement is his Father Brown-style black hat. This never leaves his head. And I'd guess there is a shaven head and topknot beneath. Just in case. Dungay's wager.

He tells me all sorts of things about his Party's plans, and his "church". But when it comes to men in dog collars I can't say I'm necessarily a believer. A two-year stint with Christian Brothers shattered the 5% of remaining illusions.

Our Head, Brother ****, eventually ran off with the school secretary shortly after I left. Which was like Absolute Confirmation in reverse.

Marmelade and Peanut Butter Sandwiches

The best fillings I can find as I dash though home on the way to the Count.

The marmelade is tinged with Teachers Whisky flavour which reminds me of a Charles Kennedy joke. The peanut butter is non-alcoholic crunchy. I check I have my pass and rosette and leap into our lift. The whiff of marmelade brings positive comments.

We need to be early as we have the fascist National Front standing in our constituency and we need to suss them out and keep them away from Tony Lloyd. They're not welcome here. And they can't be allowed a Mugabe style sneaked handshake or any other stunt.

The first ballot boxes and a last sweep of postboxes for PVs are coming in as we arrive. And we head straight for the Conference Room. Here the counters are being warmed up by re-counting some test bundles of known dimensions. At first with limited precision. But the presiding officer puts them through their paces until they are spot on.

And the serious party tellers are already hovering.

Including a car full of fascists over from Yorkshire where most of the prime seats are taken by the BNP. Thrown out of their own county. Imagine that. The only ones not wearing rosettes. They might as well have swastikas tattooed on their foreheads.

But actually they're like scared rabbits. They are massively outnumbered by the staff and around forty party workers. They are like fish out of water in this democratic process.

Back to Base

We're tired. But we dutifully finish off and head back. We demand tea and biscuits before going out. Our Lord has had it agrees to stay at HQ. But Tony (this is the council by-election one of the three on our record breaking 2001 Tony Tony Tony campaign) and I head off to the Kings Road estate leaving a 13 year old in command.

Half a dozen willing workers arrive as we head out, and more are back for seconds. We will get the full knock up done. Probably including the lower priority rounds where the Labour houses are far apart and the promises weaker or less trusted.

We two knock off six streets in less than an hour. It is gratifying. They have been, they are just going, they are pleased to see us.

This area will probably take a while to bounce back to pre-war support and big majorities in local elections but the whole exercise has been very encouraging.

"Vote Labour Today, Vote Tony Lloyd, Your Manchester Labour Candidate .. is Tony Lloyd

The above is what three hours of evolution did to the original statement :

"Vote Labour Today, Vote Tony Lloyd, The Manchester Labour Candidate"

Already good and clear. Gets better and clearer. We begin in Newton Heath, where the BNP often stand, though not this year, winding round half a dozen estates.

It's not landslide weather in the psephological sense. More the sort of constant drizzle that triggers the geomorphological type. And Newton Heath is a tough audience to start with. Mostly hiding in their houses. Some heckling. A few flicking the bird. But probably just as many with thumbs up and smiles.

Our first estate is toughest of the tough though. With a few mud balls coming in at the windscreen and passenger window on the way in. And the same delightful youths adding more on the way out. I'm proud to say the deliberate mantra continues unabated.

And so on and so forth past the dissenters entrance down to the Cemetary. Through Miles Platting, including the close where Tony Lloyd's agent lives. Then back North a bit round the ASDA superstore roundabout twice. On past the Velodrome and Philips Park. To Clayton Vale. Parts of Ancoats where we meet Jim, Jim and Mick who advise us to clear the mud completely before we head for Openshaw.

Quickly done. Past Clayton Hall. Along Clayton Lane. Me directing as the noble Lord has little idea of the geography. Keep left. Left and left again. He wants to head right. That'll be the blue blood. But we get there in the end. Louisa Street, Toxteth Street and so on and so forth.

These estates are much improved and more work is going on. But not as tidy as those in Bury North, or Moss Side for that matter. The terraces in Openshaw include a lot of voids. Ready for selective clearances I guess. There are quite creative PFIs going on around here. But that's a long story.

Back towards the city centre. Ardwick and Hulme get a quick blast and then we check in at Gaye's the Moss Side HQ. We've got half an hour more. Where does she want us? It has to be the Alex Park estate which returns 80 and 90% promises.

We head off and cheer up Claire, Alistair and Ayshan and they us. They demand music or toasting. I stick to the script.

The mobile rings. The sub agent for Halley Range wants reinforcements for the end of the kocking the vote out process.

Radio Manchester Central

Off I go to collect JP from the City Centre branch to lend a hand out in the 'burbs. Tony Lloyd's agent rings as I drive and I pull over and switch off and take the call. Detailed instructions follow on the route and even the script to use on Radio Central - out and about tannoying the faithful.

JP is delivered to WR HQ and is offered three different jobs in the first two minutes. I walk him to our busiest Polling Station to collect polling numbers for an hour or two and this brings Tony back into HQ to help with the knock up rounds. There is storm in a teacup raging over when these should start. Comrades! Comrades!

My driver, Tannoy owner, and hereditary peer dresses the car with posters and off we head avoiding the worst of the traffic on a cross constituency dash.

More of this will follow. But rest assured that three hours belting out a constant mantra in the back streets of north and east Manchester is not as glamourous as it's cracked up to be.

Next task : Knocking Up WR

Later : Avoiding Mugabe moments

Much later : Party

Dimbleby prediction : Lib Dems up 2 seats, Tories up lots, Lab majority down to 66
(based on MORI/NOP exit polls)

Today is Election Day

Well, today actually is election day, May 5. This blog entry has been sitting here for days but I'm tweaking it a bit.


BEGIN WITH THE END IN SIGHT
===========================

When you are voting, and in the spirit of So Now Who Do We Vote For? project you will want to make sure :

*A Labour does not lose seats to Tories through your actions

*B Labour has a working majority, not too big, not too small

*C You signal loud and clear in seats where Tories are definitely no threat

And :

*D Labour are nudged left and take notice

You may also want to :

*E Ensure Labour left MPs and Labour anti-war MPs are not dumped by YOU

POINT A
=======

On point A you will be aware that there has been a controversy over the Labour line i.e. that a swing of just over 10% from Labour to any third party will hand between 70 and 80 seats to the Tories WITHOUT THEM IMPROVING THEIR OWN VOTE ONE IOTA.

If the swing is to Lib Dems they will pick up five or six seats. If it is to smaller parties the Tories will gain 80 seats.

Labour HQ are saying this prediction is based on private polls and is accurate. But even on the public polls and The Independent analysis find that about 38 seats go to the Tories with such a swing. And they only have to nick a few back from the Lib Dems and win a few local fights with Labour to make a serious advance.

Perhaps take away Labour's overall majority.

This is incredibly difficult to calibrate for voters. So what are you going to do? Let a Tory in in your area? Risk more Tory power in government? Perhaps a fairly right wing Lib-Con regime as we have in Leeds Town Hall?

Still on point A you will be aware that 10% of habitual Labour voters in these seats going "on strike" and not voting at all could also hand up to 80 seats to the Tories, half without them gaining, half needing active swings to the Blues.

AIn other words if the Tories happen to gain some votes here and there then a smaller swing to a third party or less strikers would let them in through the muddle.

POINT B
=======

On point B there is a school of thought which says a small working majority is good enough and will mean the Labour left, albeit numerically diminished, will have the balance of power in parliament. Nice thought for many readers.

However there are several flies in that particular ointment.

First,it is hard to calibrate and a dashed close run thing may go the wrong way. Waking up on May 6 to find Howard has the decision on committing troops to Iran or Syria instead of a chastened Blair is not progress.

[Blair's party are the only ones to have responded to my request for a sign for Labour blog readers. See Do Not Attack Iran : Response.]

Second, the left will be seriously diminished and in a smaller parliamentary party a higher percentage will be taking the Blair shilling as Ministers and bagcarriers.

Third, Blair may look elsewhere in the centre left-right and team up with elements of the Lib Dems or worse to get his neo-liberal reforms through.

The school of thought which says a larger majority means more shift to the left is gathering force even among those in the party who have most reason to oppose Blair.

POINT C
=======

Following George Monbiot's advice on signalling effectively is reasonably sound. But I think students of SNWDWVF should boost left Labour and anti-war Labour up his list and should be mindful of Point A above. Don't let the Tories slip through the muddle.

POINT D
=======

This is covered in Point B really. I subscribe to the idea that a more comfortable majority makes it easier for Blair to leave earlier. Makes it easier for the successor. Makes a fourth term - hopefully a socialist revival - more likely. Keeps the Labour left, and the Trade Unions, and affiliated socialist societies, and the ordinary members and supporters more not less important.

Yes, of course a Tory win brings forward the chance of a socialist revolution! But in real terms it is just more misery for the poorest and weakest in our society.

POINT E
=======

I posted a link to lists of the most endangered of the left and anti-war Labour species within 48 hours of the PVs going out. See links and quizzes, under Labour Left Briefing. Please don't dump a socialist MP or even a moderate anti-war MP because you want to attack Blair.

There is no point replacing most of these people (our people) with any candidate from any other party. They are unlikely to be to be any improvement. And quite likely to be worse. Online quizzes that put Lib Dems ahead on your issues neglect the fact of absences and abstentions and some other marquee issues for the left. Not least progress on minimum wage and constitutional reform. Lib Dems voted against progress.

HAPPY VOTING
============

Of course I realise that many people will be voting Labour between now and 5 May with a heavy heart, with their fingers over their nose, under protest.

But please do look at the Bar Chart (Read this Bar Chart ...), please consider the minimum wage, Lords reform, boost for schools, boost for pensioners, boost for police, boost for patients and health workers, and even the boost from the G8 led by Brown and Blair on environment and world poverty.

There are still many positive reasons to vote Labour. Not least the vastly improved lives of some of the poorest people in our land. For example in Moss Side, Ardwick, and Ancoats. Don't let them down.

Read This Bar Chart Before Voting (IFS/BBC)

(NB I have boosted this entry to the top. The latest entries appear below this one)

At last! A bar chart, produced from independent Institute of Fiscal Studies data. RReliable factually, and with real meaning and real resonance for the So Now Who Are We Going To Vote For project.

It is taken from the BBC's website :

http://tinyurl.com/dj2ux *

For those using a text reader this is a ten column bar chart showing the winners and losers under tax and benefit changes from each decile by wealth. 3.9% of the income of the richest tenth of the population is a lot more than 11.25% of the poorest.

Poorest - plus 11.25
2 - plus 11.5
3 - plus 8.1
4 - plus 5.25
5 - plus 2.5
6 - plus 0.5
7 - minus 0.6
8 - minus 2.0
9 - minus 2.8
Richest - minus 3.9

For me this is an important reminder of the power of Labour, even this Labour, to change people's fortunes. And a reminder why it must be forward not back to Tories who rotated the bar chart on its vertical axis - and then some.

So, please, no couldn't-care-less protests of the Tariq Ali "Liberal For A Day" school of "thought". No going to bed with Charlie and waking up with Michael. No Tories getting through the muddle.

Between us, instinctive Labour supporters as we are. In our varying degrees of disatisfaction with Blair and Co. We should really do our best to return Labour with a healthy majority. So the Labour left and the TU link are still important. And footsey in the muddle in the middle with the privatising and opportunistic Lib Dems is not the order of the day.

Print out a copy of the chart and take it with you to the polling station so you don't lose your nerve or keep it in view as the PV is cast. Show your friends. Call radio and TV phone ins. Write to the Postbag of your local papers.

Let's not throw this progress away.

* Full URL

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41061000/gif/_41061315_redistribution_gra203.gif

Telling Tales

It's always a joy to sit on a polling station shooting the breeze with a Lib Dem opposite number. Except that this year they aren't here. Most I'd guess are in neighbouring Withington trying to get the cancer-scare-candidate elected.

The fact I'm on my own seems to attract more attention from the electorate, some of whom are keen to share their thinking as they leave, if not always their polling number.

One of my first customers is one of the Lib Dems casting his own vote. His view is that I'm wasting my time here. In other words the count here will be a "weigh in" for my man and little change for the rest.

But he's wrong of course. We want the Council seats back sooner rather than later and maintaining our work rate in the ward is important.

I ask him whether he penned the nasty little attacking letter that appeared over his name in the Metro. As I had predicted they responded to my letter suggesting they "get over it" on a Standards Body case that had gone against them with a personal attack. And no substance. It looked like the work of their local leader.

But he was happy to claim it. But he's a proper old school Liberal. Properly anti-war and a regular on the local vigil. I don't mind. As he says it is all part of the rough and tumble. And their habit of attacking members of the public will surely back fire on them as they look like bullies, while my challenges to their councillors are an honourable part of the accountability process.

He's soon followed by a confused ranter who has voted Lib Dem over all kinds of things. The way the housing market's been going for one. The war for another.

Then I'm off to my next posting. Jenny takes over. I warn here that one of the polling station scrutineers told off my predecessor for collecting the polling numbers on the way in rather than the way out. People often volunteer them.

Later I hear the police make a visit.

At the next place I see several of the people I have canvassed. Including the couple who strongly support Tony Lloyd but can't be doing with Tony Blair. He has kept his promise and voted for Lloyd. She has done as expected and protested "but I'll be ringing him to get my drain fixed next week".

Then there is a ranter on the subject of "parking on the pavements, parking in the cycle lanes, parking near the corners" though I think from his body language amongst other voters that he's actually thinking about immigration.

He points out a car across the road with two wheels on the pavement and a Tony Lloyd sticker. I say it's not mine but I'll pass on the message.

One voter tells us he's voted for Marc (the Lib Dem) as he's known him since they were in the SDP together. And another asks me to report a dumped Lib Dem poster stake in his garden. I take the address and will pass it on.

Two hours flashes by. Voting has almost reached the one a minute mark. When that is achieved on average at all five stations there is a turn out of 4500 which is between 45 and 50%.

In fact there will be queues later and the rate can get to six times this. If the weather improves this ward will turn out 60% or more - similar to the national average - though Manchester Central was just 38% last time, and without Whalley Range it would have been in the 20s.

The return slips go back to base to be marked up and I hear that our busiest Polling Station has just one desk rather than the usual two. This one always has big queues at peak times. In 2003 I took Hilary Wainwright of Red Pepper here to help as however the election is going it is good to see so many people being responsible citizens.

When I get home the local paper has arrived. They have printed my letter about the cancer scare mongering. Good.

Even on Election Day

Dogs need exercise. So early afternoon we head off to the river and run a loop from Chorlton Water Park via Kenworthy Woods, along the river to Sale Water Park and back to Chorlton. This takes in three or four other constituencies! But looks like this may be my only outing of the day as time is flying by.

Motor by one of the Withington constituency committee rooms and see Keith Bradley's team looking industrious. Back for some blogging. And then it's out for a three hour audition as voice over man.

Lib Dems Whineing Here : at St Margarets

There has been a fuss today at one of our polling stations. Police have interviewed some of our tellers! This is because a Lib Dem supporter and then possibly Lib Dem Apparatniks have made a complaint. That a few voters were asked for or volunteered their polling number on the way in instead of on the way out.

Having sat at this particular polling station and others with Lib Dem tellers over half a dozen elections I can confirm the obvious. We always cooperate with one another so that voters are only asked once, the approach is relaxed and friendly, and yes both parties take numbers either inwards or outwards.

Lib Dems whineing and whingeing here.

Guest Blogger : John Prescott : Breakfast Message

(not really a guest blogger! - just what Prezza sent the Labour mailing list this morning)

Today is Polling Day - Your chance to make a vital decision about who will stand on the steps of Downing Street tomorrow and who will govern our country for the next
five years.
I've been campaigning all over the country this last four weeks and I've seen for
myself how Labour is changing lives for the better.
From Cornwall to Rochdale I've seen huge investment in our children's education -
brand new schools being built and others refurbished.
In Dartford, Yorkshire and the Peak District, I've seen Labour's Sure Start schemes,
providing essential support for parents and children, bringing communities together
and vastly reducing crime rates.
From Portsmouth to Burton-upon-Trent, I've seen new kitchens, bathrooms and central
heating being fitted - Labour's 'Warmer Homes' grants have already helped over a
million pensioners and vulnerable people.
Massive urban regeneration projects have transformed town centres that used to be
run down ghettos, into vibrant places to live, work and socialise.
In Scotland, Wales and England, I've seen the minimum wage making a real difference.
I've seen how high employment and a strong economy have allowed us to properly
invest in our public services.
Today you must choose between Labour, under Tony Blair, or the Tories under Michael
Howard. A vote for the Lib Dems will effectively be a vote for the Tories.
Don't forget how the Tories, and Michael Howard in particular, hurt the British
people when they were in office. They put 3 million people on the dole. They hurt
homeowners with runaway interest rates. They hurt pensioners by charging for eye
tests and putting VAT on fuel. They hurt hospital patients by under funding the NHS
so waiting lists rose to 18 months. They hurt communities by cutting police and
they hurt the country as a whole with their catastrophic boom and bust economy.
It takes time to design and build new schools, hospitals and town centres and it
takes 8 years to fully train a doctor. Similarly, it takes time to embed a strong
economy and principles of social justice. But it doesn't take long to scrap, cut
and destroy! The Tories could wreck many of Labour's achievements in a few short
months.
Even though the polls show Labour in front, it doesn't mean we'll win. When I was
elected to Parliament in 1970, we were 16 points ahead and everyone assumed Labour
had it in the bag. But we lost.
Your vote is vital. Whatever you do today, vote. And if you want Labour, vote
Labour.
Thank you,
John Prescott

Special Tree Posters

The former Tory Canyon of Mauldeth Rd has no Tory posters this year. They're pretty much extinct round here. But a few fringe posters have appeared within a short stagger from the Southern Hotel and the Co-op Late Shop.

One type calls for everyone to tear up their ballot and not vote to 'save democracy'. The others are headed with the Tory "Are you thinking ..." slogan and torch, followed by some lines jeering about their oblivion.

Both could be put up by Lib Dems. They are always trying to pull in tactical Tories. So much so that in the last few Generals the Tory vote has tumbled from 15,000 for a close second the first time they lost it, to around 5,000 now. The Libs meanwhile have gone up from a handful (and not in the Lib Dem sense) to almost 8,000.

Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Most of the Tory votes seem on the face of it to have transferred over from the one party to the other.

Protestors of the left who choose the Lib Dems are lining up with hang 'em and flog 'em Tories of the anyone-but-Labour tendancy.

This helps explain the scarcity of visible Lib Dem policy on the groun locally. And probably also Charles Kennedy's original reticence about the anti-war cause.

Pa(xc)man : http://tinyurl.com/bmlbf

I loved Pacman myself. Had the top score in the students' union. Whereas Woolas and Mann were crap. Aaronwitch too old. Hewlett plotting. And Ben Elton too busy air kissing nearby. And Paxman is OK. So this is diverting.

Howard's Lost It

Are you thinking what I'm thinking? Whatever else it may have done the Blair project has actually sent the Tories spinning towards oblivion.

Never has this been more obvious than tonight when C4 Jon Snow tackles Michael Howard. The Tory smirk-in-chief is boarish, talks over the questions, and is probably as good an advert for NOT TORY as the now haunted Mr Fox.

All of a sudden the Tory Terrets Syndrome - Lower Tax, Controlled Immigration, £35 Billion Cuts (And That's Just For Starters), More Police, School Discipline, Clean Hospitals and Accountability - gets a new ingredient. Aside that is from the one I've already smuggled in! Did you spot it?

The new one is "No Stalinist Targets" and Howard can't seem to stop himself saying the word 'Stalin' over and over again.

Now to me targets make a lot of sense but if Michael wants to offer anecdote and spin instead of carefully monitored progress towards desired results (ditto those Lib Dems) then so be it.

But it does leave the question of how should we refer to Mr Howard's own targets for the first day in government, first week and so on. Are these also Stalinist? By his own definition? Or do we need to find their own dirigiste regime to slam Tories with?

Planning the Big Day

Whalley Range has five polling districts. We have decided to run a full Reading system for three of these.

This means having volunteers posted on each taking voter polling numbers for around 13 hours (from 7 am to as late as 8pm) and comparing these with our voter iD records as the day progresses. In a close marginal we would be knocking out the vote all day but here we will start at 5 or 6pm and make sure as many of our "promises" as possible make the trip to the polling station.

In 2003 and 2004 we have found ourselves knocking on the doors of our natural voters, even taking them to the polling station, but knowing full well that many of them will be against over the war.

I'm no Julian Cope fan but one of his lyrics always pops into my head when I think about this. I've no idea what the tune would be :

"Like a pig pulling a cart of sausages
We are drawing our own conclusion"

Errr, something like that anyway. But for 2005 we have to be more hopeful. Tony Lloyd is immensely popular and very well known. He has been a stalwart anti-war rebel. Voters have been coming back to us, particularly as the local Lib Dem councillors are weak. And everyone can see Blair's on the ropes at the moment.

We have agreed that we will go and knock out the vote in other neighbouring wards if they are short staffed but we want to knock on the door of every promise who has yet to vote at least once.

I agree with two different sub agents to specific stints on "their" polling stations and then field a few calls as they each adjust the arranegments. I tell them to put their heads together and call me when it's settled.

I am also offered the job of being Radio Labour for tomorrow afternoon, touring the strongest Labour wards Tannoying out the vote.

Want to do a bit in one of the more marginal constituencies if I get the chance. At the moment there is a slot - but the way these things go I'm beginning to have doubts whether I can fit it in. We'll see.

Reds 1 Blues 0 - Howard says 'Omen'

How extraordinary. Michael Howard is grasping at straws here. Perhaps the hard working Reds winning through against the asset stripping moneybags Blues is a sign for the Tory leader? The Blues blame the yellow linesman for the result. Howard meanwhile supports the Reds. And Damien was Duff.

Hacienda Revisited

As part of a sweep with fliers the Post Office wouldn't deliver in the City centre I get to the Hacienda apartments.

Interesting chat with the concierge. I tell him I've not been in since a club stood on the site. He says he's heard it was bad. I say that towards the end there was some gangster stuff. He offers to show me the list of bands. Madonna is on it. I think I was there when she played in a Tube recording. And I tell him I've promoted a few shows here and managed a few bands.

He hands me a copy of City Life. I tell him I was one of the founders.

This is New City Life, not Old City Life as founded in 1983. Way back then we carried news and news features. And a good deal of political gossip. Probably contributing to the onset of successful municipal socialism and the rout of the Tory rump.

Some of the Lib Dems now were dramatis personae then also. With one of the more memorable characters their councillor who seemed quite proud of his track record dropping living animals into wet concrete. Beats pulling the legs off crane flies.

I wonder whether a proper independent news mag in Manchester would help keep some of the clowns (mainly Lib Dem clowns that is) out of the Town Hall.

City Life is now owned by the Guardian / Evening News and carries no hard news.

Stalking Horse, or Donkey

Various conversations and email exchanges now about the Blair succession. Will it be sooner rather than later? I think yes. Would Blair have resigned if advice had been leaked or published earlier? I think no. Can this be done within 100 days as my spread betting comrade believes? I think possibly.

What's needed is a stalking horse.

There is a certain amount of speculation about who may stand in the real selection. Cook perhaps? Probably too senior for a stalking horse. Some say too annoying for a real candidate. Peter Hain maybe? He is certainly after advancement.

It really is hard to see where a hard left candidate would come from.

It may be down to one of the more reasonable rebels to step forward and do the deed.

But then I do think we are going to get Brown, barring adverse events.

Does this Mean Stott is a Blairite?

Speaking of close marginals in Greater Manchester there is a picture on the wall in the Unison HQ where we are stuffing of one Mr Stott in the same picture as one Tony Blair.

Speech bubbles have been added. Blair is asking the crowd "So does this mean Stott is a Blairite?" while Stott retorts sotto voce "No, it means Blair is a Stottite!" A bystander refers to the scene and asks "Who is that standing next to Councillor Tom?. Labour candidate the big haired Lorna Fitzsimons stands by, lost for words.

This is the scene as Blair presents a rally to promise the £520 million plus needed for Metrolink services to Rochdale, Oldham and through my patch too.

The captioned picture look down on us stuffers alongside the flag of Cuba and other labour movement paraphrenalia. But there's many a true word spoken in jest.

Our 'phone volunteers have found people in Rochdale, asked if they are voting for Ms Fitzsimons, saying "No, we vote for Tom Stott round here".

Lorna faces a strong challenge from Lib Dem council leader Mike Rowan.

A Good Stuffing

It turns out that there are far more than 12,000 letters and envelopes to deal with. Some have been sent out to wards. But when I arrive there are about 20 people and hurrah a folding machine working hard and hitting targets.

Although it is something of a farewell symphony and we get down to single figures as we reach the third tranche of leaflets - letters to promises in one ward where members are planning to hand deliver not post them - we do get through the work cheerfully.

Anecdotes abound. A certain activist who produced a torrent of complaints by working delivering leaflets into the wee small hours. The 'turkey gate' which saw off one ex Councillor, now a buddhist holiness and Greens organiser. And also tales from our local marginals. With a certain amount of gallows humour on a seat or two where our candidate may be doomed. Deservedly or otherwise.

Deserved where the detailed politics of the individual, their hollowing out of their local party through crap politics and also personality clashes, and where as far as anyone can tell this is compounded by a failure to gather information or campaign effectively.

Catch Up : Fox Haunting : A Poster Boy Moment

Liam Fox is the poster boy for NOT TORY. He is involved with a beaming George wotsit, the wet almost-reasonable liberal one, in unveiling a poster suggesting that Tony Blair has told a fib or two in his career.

This is one of those posters that is mostly seen on websites, press launches, and of course in acres of newsprint and rakes of radio and TV coverage; rarely actually on a street near you.

But I reckon that this one is going to haunt Fox for the rest of his career.

That is because a journalist asks Fox whether he has ever told a lie in politics himself. He is caught like a fox in the lampers' headlights. Avoiding eye contact. Blinking and looking away. Wondering when the dogs or the bullets or the brickbats are coming.

He changes the subject shiftily. This is priceless.

Vote-OK and Countryside Alliance : Tally Ho!

The Guardian lead with a story about how hunt supporters are organising to take out a few anti-hunting Lab and Lib Dem seats and install pro-hunt Tories.

I know a thing or two about this campaign in Manchester and will come back to it later. Just as soon as I've helped fold 12,000 letters and stuff 12,000 envelopes in our bid to get Tony Lloyd re-elected. And I'll need to track down Kevin from the Wythenshawe lurcher and terrier crew for the latest.

***

I'm back though I haven't cuaght up with Kevin just yet. The deal being offered to opponents of the loyalist and pro-ban Paul Goggins and the ultra-loyalist and rabid anti-hunt Sir Gerald Kaufman is that up to 150 rabbiters per constituency will turn out and work on the doorstep or dropping leaflets for any candidate who will agree to back repeal of the Hunting With Dogs Act.

My belief is that they're all rabbit here. Though they may unseat a few anti-hunt candidates in the shires this lobby are unlikely to get a kill in Manchester seats.

100 Days : Will That Be Blair's Quota?

Today marks 100 days since GW Bush got himself re-elected by fair means or foul. And it also marks the day when John, the spread betting guru of the "What Now For Labour" discussion list on Topica, made his prediction that Blair would last just 100 days. He is expecting the bookies to be laying odds on this only after 6 May but appears confident that they'll be plumping for two to three years and that he will make a small fortune for his pension fund.

More on the direct betting and spread betting markets later today. And also on that leadership contest.

Independent Exposé : Labour Blogger Apologises!

Today's Independent leads with a cover featuring four swingometers and their view that voting Lib Dem is unlikely to let Michael Howard into government.

For some reason they use swings of 3%, 6% and 9% rather than the something over 11% where Labour loses overall control.

It would be at that point where the Lib Dems could start dabbling with both of the other parties. With Tories as in Leeds and other Councils. With the Labour right as in Scotland. In both cases the Labour left would probably be out of the loop.

At every single step in the process there appear to be MORE Tory than Lib Dem gains as a result of the swing.

However it does seem that some of the figures given out by Labour HQ have overstated the effect - if that is these were on the same basis as The Independent.

As I have repeated these claims in this blog I must apologise without reservation.

I will say this. The study is based on the same turnout, and no change whatsoever or a 3% uplift in the Tory vote. If the turn out is well down as many expect and if there is a greater Tory improvement vs Labour, and versus Lib Dems in their key marginals too ... Well then the predicted global effect of 80 seats changing and only 5 or so going to the Libs, and even a Tory government, well I think that may still be possible.

I'm off to find a two way swingometer that works to have a play with the numbers.